The classic, done right
How to run a due date pool
The due date pool is the oldest baby game there is: everyone picks the day they think the baby arrives, the baby picks the actual day, and one smug person wins. It's simple, it's free, and it turns nine months of waiting into a horse race. Here's how to run one that people actually stay interested in.
The basic rules
- Everyone gets the official due date from the parents. That number is the anchor.
- Each player picks a date. Some pools allow duplicates, better pools make each date exclusive so there's no splitting the win.
- Closest date to the actual birthday wins. Decide up front whether "closest" breaks ties by earliest pick or by adding a time-of-day guess.
Worth knowing before you pick: only around 4 percent of babies arrive on their actual due date, and first babies run late more often than early. The confident aunt who takes the due date itself is almost always donating her guess.
The tie-breaker problem
Every paper due date pool eventually hits the same argument: two people picked dates one day out on either side, or the baby splits the difference at 11:58pm. Pick your tie-breaker before anyone guesses. The usual options, in order of how many arguments they prevent:
- Add a time-of-day guess. Closest combined guess wins. Settles almost everything.
- Earliest submitted guess wins ties. Rewards the people who committed early.
- Split the pot. Fine, but co-champions are boring and everyone knows it.
The upgrade: instead of one date per person, run it with date ranges and live odds. Everyone gets 1,000 free points to spread across windows like "way early," specific days near the due date, and "fashionably late." The odds move as people pile in, latecomers can still play, and there's no tie-breaker argument because the math settles everything. That's exactly what Odds Baby does, and the due date is just one of the markets.
Prize ideas that keep it friendly
- The winner picks where the first group dinner happens after the baby settles in.
- The winner's name goes in the baby book as "first to call it."
- Loser closest to the bottom owes the parents a batch of frozen meals.
- Bragging rights alone, which are free and last forever.
Keep money out of it. The moment there's a cash pot, someone's grandmother becomes a shark and the vibe changes.
When to start it
The sweet spot is the start of the third trimester. Early enough that there's real suspense, late enough that the due date is stable and people are paying attention. Announce it in the group chat where the baby news already lives, and let the parents post updates as intel: every "doctor says any day now" reshuffles everyone's confidence.
Want the full version with weight, hair, delivery-room drama, and a proper finale? Read the baby betting pool, explained, or grab more baby shower game ideas.
Start a free due date poolFree, always. No app, no signup, no email.